News - Արդյո՞ք UPS-ը խելացի ընտրություն է դիվիդենդների աճի և պաշարների անկման պայմաններում:

UPS (UPS -0.45%) has seen its stock plummet by 57% from its record high in February 2022, currently trading at around $100. This steep decline, while alarming, has elevated the company's dividend yield to roughly 6.5%, highlighting the importance of its upcoming performance report on October 27. The drop in stock value largely mirrors a sharp reduction in earnings, which fell from $12.94 per share in 2022 to an expected $7.22 in 2026. A strategic initiative to cut Amazon-related volume by 50% was completed in June, leading to lower short-term earnings but potentially improving future profitability. A closer look at UPS's second-quarter performance shows positive signs despite the volume cutback. U.S. domestic revenue increased by 6% year over year, even as daily volume dipped 3.3%, thanks to a significant rise in revenue per piece and better operational margins. These metrics indicate effective cost-saving strategies, which have already generated $1.2 billion in benefits and are projected to total $3 billion for 2026. However, the company anticipates a more modest third quarter with flat domestic revenue and a 7% operating margin, aiming for an 8.8% average in the second half. To achieve its full-year goals, UPS needs robust earnings between July and December. First-half earnings per share were $2.82, with a target of approximately $4.40 needed in the latter half of the year. Although this represents growth over 2025, excluding past gains from asset sales, it requires a 15% increase year over year. UPS's cash flow is crucial, especially with such a high dividend yield. The company aims for $5.5 billion in free cash flow for 2026, compared to its $5.4 billion dividend obligations. Having generated $1.6 billion in free cash flow through June, it needs an additional $3.9 billion to meet its financial commitments. The valuation of UPS shares at about 13 times anticipated 2027 earnings offers a compelling discount compared to the broader S&P 500 (^GSPC -0.52%), trading at 19 times forward earnings. For investors, UPS presents both a risk and an opportunity. The company's decision to streamline operations has improved certain financial metrics, and the stock's current price could provide an attractive entry point, especially for those prioritizing income through dividends. However, challenges remain, particularly in maintaining sufficient cash flow to support the dividend amidst market uncertainties.