News - Проблемы оценки компаний в сфере искусственного интеллекта: взгляд Ховарда Маркса

In a recent discussion on 'Bloomberg: The China Show,' billionaire investor Howard Marks outlined the complexities of investing in AI companies like Anthropic, which plans to go public soon, potentially ranking among the largest IPOs historically. Marks articulated the difficulties value investors face when trying to project future earnings for such companies due to the unpredictable nature of AI advancement. Anthropic, known for its AI product Claude, highlighted in its IPO prospectus their commitment to constantly transform their business, releasing products that may surpass their current economic value, driven by continual AI enhancements. Marks, cofounder and co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management, contrasted AI with decades of other investment experiences, describing it as unusually inscrutable, dynamic, autonomous, and often unpredictable. He addressed the recent fluctuations in the AI sector, where investor anxiety about AI expenditures led to a significant sell-off in Alphabet and Amazon stocks, temporarily pushing the Nasdaq 100 down by approximately 1,400 points. Despite this volatility, the index has rebounded impressively, marking a year-to-date climb of 13% and about 160% from late 2022 figures. Promoting a reflective investment approach, Marks advocates for long-term portfolio building, reminiscent of Warren Buffett's long-standing investment strategies. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has maintained significant holdings in Coca-Cola and American Express since the 1990s, reinforcing the merits of holding steady over time. In line with this philosophy, both Marks and Buffett warn against being swept up in speculative AI investments, suggesting that while the sector holds promise, it's essential to balance enthusiasm with caution amid potential market bubbles. Additionally, investor Michael Burry has echoed concerns, cautioning that the intense investment and accounting maneuvers within the AI field might signal a looming bust, reminiscent of previous economic bubbles. Burry's analysis via Substack raises alarms over potentially inflated investments and financial structures within AI enterprises. Amidst these insights, the overarching narrative is one of prudent anticipation: recognizing AI's transformative potential while keeping historical investment wisdom at the forefront to navigate the unpredictable terrain.