News - Russians Predict End to Ukraine Conflict by 2026 Amid Economic Strains

In a significant survey conducted by the state-owned Russian Public Opinion Research Center, a majority of Russians—exactly 55%—believe that the military confrontation with Ukraine, referred to as a 'special military operation' by Moscow, is likely to conclude by 2026. This optimistic outlook is linked to achieving the national objectives set by the Russian leadership. The survey, which included 1,600 participants aged 18 and older, was carried out in mid-December, with Mikhail Mamonov, the deputy head of the research center, presenting these findings at a recent roundtable discussion. This marks a change, as previous years' polls hadn't included public expectations about the war's end, a sensitive subject within Russia's closely controlled public discourse. Simultaneously, Russia's once vibrant economy, previously supported by wartime industrial efforts, appears to be waning. November data from Rosstat, Russia's state statistics bureau, showed a 0.7% decline in industrial output year-over-year—contrasting October's 3.1% rise and against an anticipated 1.2% growth by analysts. Additionally, there was nearly a 10% drop in corporate profits, decreasing to 21.6 trillion rubles ($273.4 billion) from January to October. Factors such as persistent but decreasing inflation, reduced energy revenue, a strong ruble, and strict credit conditions have put pressure on consumer demand and personal incomes, thereby weakening private-sector vitality. An external survey by the Levada Center, reflecting opinions from 1,608 respondents between November 18 and 27, highlights concerns over both economic stability and the ongoing war as key issues for the Russian public. During a widely watched televised Q&A session with citizens, called 'Direct Line,' President Vladimir Putin admitted a noticeable slowdown in economic growth—expected to hit 1% this year compared to the 4.3% projected for 2024—blaming this on government inflation-control policies. This session revealed broader public dissatisfaction, emphasized by live viewer comments, which focused on issues such as internet reliability, water quality, and rising living costs, underscoring the tangible effects of economic factors on everyday Russian life.