News - Thomas de Waal: The situation in Artsakh has the potential to get a whole lot worse

The situation in Artsakh can get much worse. A little precious time remains for international diplomacy before the worst scenario occurs. Thomas de Waal, regional specialist of the Carnegie European Foundation, wrote this in his X microblog, referring to Azerbaijan's aggression against Artsakh.  “Day 1 of a new war in Karabakh (an awful thing to write.) A terrible day for Western diplomacy, for peacemakers, above all of course for the people of Karabakh. Main observation, I'm afraid, is that it has the potential to get a whole lot worse. Baku calls for dissolution of Karabakh Armenian longstanding political structures and local armed forces before it will talk. (Also says that there are still soldiers there from Armenia, that is disputed can't be verified). It's a call to surrender the other side won't accept. So the Azerbaijani attack on Karabakh set to continue. Baku today mainly used air power to destroy what military infrastructure remains in Karabakh. Reports of a few dozen casualties already. What comes next could be worse, however. Next step may be a ground attack to take population centres where most Armenian armed men are stationed and thousands of civilians live. With a prospect of much greater bloodshed. So a little precious time remains for international diplomacy before this scenario occurs. What about Moscow? Up to 2000 Russian peacekeepers on the ground but thus far they are doing nothing. At the same time Russian officials and commentators are blaming Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan and his pro-Western turn for the situation. Unsurprising then that many Armenians believe Moscow is allowing this to happen in order to try to instigate regime change in Armenia. Keep a close eye also on Yerevan in coming days. A very dynamic situation (in a bad way),” he wrote. As previously reported by NEWS.am, Azerbaijan's Armed Forces initiated artillery fire along the entire line of contact in Nagorno Karabakh on September 19, starting at 1 p.m., in an attempt to breach the defense line of the Nagorno Karabakh Defense Forces. Presently, Stepanakert, the capital of Nagorno Karabakh, and other settlements are enduring heavy shelling. Gegham Stepanyan, the Human Rights Defender of Nagorno Karabakh, has documented multiple casualties and injuries among civilians, including children. As of September 20, fighting continues along the contact line of Nagorno Karabakh with varying degrees of intensity. Units of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces are employing various weapons not only to maintain their positional advance but also to target civilian infrastructure. As of 03:00, September 20, according to the information received by the Office of the Human Rights Defender, the number of civilian casualties in Artsakh as a result of Azerbaijani aggression has reached 7, including 3 women, 2 children, and 2 men. There are also 35 injured persons among the civilian population: 13 children, 15 women and 7 men.