News - Stratfor reflects on statement by Armenia ambassador to EU about threat of Azerbaijan invasion in weeks

The Stratfor analytical center has reflected on the recent statement made by the Armenian Ambassador to the European Union (EU), Tigran Balayan, that there was an "imminent threat" of an Azerbaijani invasion of Armenia that could occur in weeks. This came after Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev announced that France's decision to send military aid to Armenia would make a new conflict more likely, Stratfor noted. Balayan's statement is the most concrete warning issued by Armenian officials about the timeframes of military action by Azerbaijan, and it points to Yerevan's growing desperation to acquire military equipment capable of deterring an invasion, Stratfor added. At the same time, Aliyev's comments echo Russian rhetoric about Western military support for Ukraine before the Russian invasion, signaling Baku's desire to slow or prevent Western support for Armenia in order to keep a potential invasion viable in the short and long term, concluded Stratfor.