News - Poll Shows Paxton Slightly Ahead in Tight Texas Senate Race

In a closely contested race for the U.S. Senate seat in Texas, Republican Ken Paxton has taken a slight lead over Democrat James Talarico, according to the latest poll by Quantus Insights. The results reveal that Paxton holds 47.2% of the vote, while Talarico is just behind at 46.7%, with Libertarian Ted Brown capturing 2.2% and undecided voters making up 3.9%. Demographic analysis within the poll suggests differing strengths for each candidate. Paxton draws significant support from male voters (+12), older voters, particularly those aged 65 and over (+17), and white residents (+23). Conversely, Talarico leads among women (+10), younger demographics aged 18 to 29 (+33), Hispanic (+18), and Black communities (+72). Regarding geographical support, Paxton is favored in rural areas with a substantial lead of 34 points and also holds a 5-point edge in suburban areas. In contrast, Talarico finds his base in urban environments with a 26-point advantage. Among party affiliations, Paxton enjoys robust backing from Republicans with 87%, whereas Talarico garners overwhelming support from Democrats at 95%. Independents tend to favor Talarico at 52% compared to Paxton’s 37%. Perceptions of favorability depict Talarico slightly more favored (48.6%) compared to Paxton (45.8%), but a notable portion of the electorate views each candidate unfavorably - 46.8% for Talarico and 51.8% for Paxton. As Texas enters the final stretch before the elections, both candidates face the challenge of swaying undecided voters, who along with third-party supporters, compose a critical 6.1% of the electorate. With early voting on the horizon, strategies targeting these groups could prove pivotal in determining the victor in this razor-thin contest.